As a governing system, an ideal – and an inevitability – democracy is in trouble, writes Lydia Khalil.
Democracy is both a system of government and an idea. As a form of government, democracy is meant to reflect the will and consent of the governed. It is defined by contestation and participation, civil and political rights, and free and fair elections.
Democracy – particularly liberal democracy – is also defined by values and ideas. People are believed to be free, equal, and possessing inalienable rights and liberties. These principles stand apart from majority sentiment. Liberal democracies guard against the tyranny of the majority and government’s ability to infringe on these rights.
Democracy also comes in many variations and degrees of consolidation. In the 20th century, democracy came to be viewed as a “universally relevant system” and a universal value. But in the 21st century, as a governing system, an ideal, and an inevitability, democracy is in trouble. The democratisation wave of the mid-1980s and 1990s has receded and an autocratising wave rises in its stead.
Numerous global indices have measured global democratic decline. According to the latest V-Dem Institute Report, the world now has fewer democracies than autocracies for the first time in more than 20 years, and liberal democracy has become the least common regime type in the world. Annual surveys by Freedom House have measured two decades of global decline in the rights and liberties that sustain liberal democracy. The Economist Intelligence Unit measured its lowest global democratic index score in 2024, with 130 out of 167 countries measured showing either no improvement or decline.
Even longstanding, wealthy democracies are not immune. The United States’ status as a democracy has dipped across several global democracy rankings. And the democratic status of newer democracies such as Hungary and Türkiye has eroded.
That global democracy is in decline may seem like a contradictory claim when 2024 was dubbed “the year of elections”. Some 3.7 billion people – almost half of the world’s population – voted across 72 countries, making it the biggest election year in history.
However, democratic erosion often occurs despite, and even through, the voting process. Citizens can vote away the democracies they claim to cherish. Democracy is also more than elections; it is a set of values, norms, and other participatory mechanisms that must be continually safeguarded.
There is no single route to, or cause of, democratic erosion.
Democratic decline is incremental and multifaceted. Democracies rarely abruptly change through revolutions or coups. Democratic subversion almost always happens under the guise of seemingly legitimate objectives such as stemming corruption, cleaning up electoral processes, or enhancing national security. Anti-democratic leaders are often at pains to maintain the appearance of democracy and a veneer of legality.
Each element of democratic erosion can seem too inconsequential to threaten democracy on its own. Its impact is only perceived over time and in combination with other factors. Like natural erosion, democratic erosion is often not obvious until the effects are well advanced.
It is difficult to determine the point at which a nation ceases to be a democracy. Democracy is never truly consolidated; it is a practice rather than a defined-end state. Democratic erosion can lead to a temporary loss of democratic quality or a complete breakdown into autocracy.
Many times, democracies fall between these two poles. But there are a number of reinforcing dynamics that accelerate democratic erosion. If those are not interrupted or are left unchecked, the quality of democracy diminishes until its structural integrity is compromised.
There is no single route to, or cause of, democratic erosion. Democratic erosion occurs against a backdrop of certain conditions that provide opportunities for anti-democratic actors and make democratic erosion more likely.
The conditions listed here – while not exhaustive – provide opportunities for democratic erosion.
- fractured and polluted information environment
- economic inequality
- cultural and social change
- demographic change
- geopolitical change
- unresolved division
- ineffective governance
- citizen disaffection and apathy
- distrust in institutions
- technological disruption
- polarisation
- corruption
- crisis.
Conditions can exist prior to the occurrence of democratic erosion, or they can be created or exacerbated by anti-democratic actors and processes. These conditions create a degree of dissatisfaction or insecurity or generate grievances that anti-democratic actors can exploit to mobilise voters, engage in illiberal manoeuvres and unconstitutional actions, or justify anti-democratic constitutional or legislative change.
However, these conditions are not determinative. Democracy is a system of government “for the people, by the people, and of the people”. From political leaders to average citizens, the choices and actions that people make within a democracy are instrumental to either its erosion or its safeguarding. It is only when these conditions are exploited by motivated anti-democratic actors or create a situation where enough citizens lose faith in their democracy, that democratic erosion occurs.
The challenge is how to promote more robust and resilient democratic institutions, practices, and norms that can not only survive democratic erosion but bounce back and thrive in an era of democratic backsliding. None of the dynamics examined here is inevitable or irreversible.
An extract from Understanding Democratic Erosion by Lydia Khalil, co-authors Peter Woodrow, James Paterson, Robert Kaufman. Published by independent policy think tank Lowy Institute.
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