The collaborative commitment between all three tiers of government to build more than one million new, well-located homes over five years will not be achieved, says the country’s housing advisory body.
By the end of the National Housing Accord period – June 2029 – 938,000 dwellings are forecast to have been completed, a 262,000 shortfall of the 1.2 million target. “Scenario analysis indicates that even under optimistic economic scenarios, the target will not be achieved,” says the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council.
No state or territory is forecast to meet the share of the target. The net new supply is expected to total 825,000 over the Housing Accord period – 79,000 dwellings fewer than expected demand.
The supply of social and affordable housing is expected to accelerate, however, reflecting an increase in government investment – 2,600 new public dwellings were completed in 2024, and governments are targeting delivery of 55,000 new social and affordable housing dwellings over the Housing Accord period.
In its 2025 State of the Housing System report released this week, the NHSAC reports the supply of new housing is near its lowest level in a decade – 177,000 dwellings were completed in 2024, falling significantly short of underlying demand for housing, estimated at around 223,000 for the same period. “This shortfall added to already significant unmet demand in the system,” says the council.
Meanwhile, house prices and rents outpaced median household income in 2024. Consequently, says the independent advisory body, housing affordability deteriorated, though at a slower rate than in 2023.
Half of median household income was needed to meet repayments for the average new mortgage in 2024, while 33 per cent was needed to meet rental costs for the average new lease.
Australia is still very much in a housing crisis
“The deterioration of housing affordability and low levels of new housing supply in 2024 are particularly stark reminders that Australia is still very much in a housing crisis that has been decades in the making,” says the NHSAC.
However, the council says there are signs of slight improvement in parts of the housing system. Growth in housing prices and advertised rents slowed over 2024. “This is promising news.”
Additionally, as evidenced last year, the supply of social and affordable housing is accelerating, reflecting an increase in government investment and initiatives that encourage private sector investment.
“These efforts must continue,” NHSAC chair Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz said. “Even with the recent increase in economic uncertainty, housing must remain a priority. A significant uplift is needed to support Australians who depend on social and affordable housing for shelter and as a foundation for building their lives and participating in their communities.”
Laying out council’s vision for Australia’s housing system, Lloyd-Hurwitz said: “Households of all incomes and in all locations should have access to affordable, fit-for-purpose and secure housing. Australia needs a better housing system – one that can provide Australians with the homes they need. This means a housing system that can provide home ownership and rental options to all households, meet the diverse housing needs of the community, and ensure the safety and wellbeing of all Australians.”
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