The need to be better prepared for a regional crisis or conflict is now an important focus of national security planning and policy making, an intelligence report reveals.
And Australia’s intelligence community needs to be prepared for a broader range of crises – including another major pandemic, says the 2024 Independent Intelligence Review released by the government last week.
“New security threats are prominent, many amplified by technological change,” warns the report. “Australia faces both a more dangerous international environment and a growing need to defend itself against threats to its democracy, social cohesion and essential infrastructure.”
The prospect of a major crisis or conflict “demand a focused and committed approach to preparedness”. Scenario planning and exercising needs to be done on a regular basis. “This will stress-test current systems, clarify requirements and allow the Office of National Intelligence to identify any shortfalls that can be remedied,” says the report.
There also needs to be “an uplift” in the intelligence community’s ability to meet the intelligence needs of government and policy agencies. State and territory governments will want warning, advice and support, “especially in relation to protecting critical infrastructure”.
New security threats are prominent
Addressing technological advancements, the report says Australia has lost a longstanding advantage – geography. “Distance cannot protect Australia from long-range missiles, space and cyberattacks, disinformation and supply chain disruptions.”
The last intelligence review conducted in 2017 accurately forecast the consequences of technological advances, says the report. “What was not possible to see at the time was the transformative pace and scale of the change that followed.”
Advances in information technology enable propaganda and disinformation. “No democracy is immune to such breaches of sovereignty.”
The volume and sophistication of adversary use of artificial intelligence will only increase as the technology evolves over the next decade, warns the report. “Accelerated cyberattacks, enhanced data harvesting and AI-enabled biotechnology are examples of the future threat landscape.”
Australia’s ten intelligence agencies must innovate in order to keep pace with the “shifting landscape of national security threat”, says the report. “Sustaining a competitive edge in collection, operations and analysis will therefore require well-targeted investment in expertise and technical capacity.”
The government has committed to investing $44.6 million in the ONI over four years from 2025-26 to support initial implementation of the key priorities identified in the review.
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